Effects of decoupling on land use: an EU wide, regionally differentiated analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the impacts of the „Luxembourg Compromise” as compared to a continuation of Agenda 2000 to the year 2010. The employed new version of the CAPRI model allows us to represent the different member states’ implementations of the CAP reform and to reflect endogenous world market prices based upon a spatial global trade model. The specific contribution of the analysis is a detailed look at the impacts of national differences in the CAP implementation and regional production structures with respect to changes in land allocation. At EU level, cereal areas decrease by about 5% and oilseeds by about 3%. This is paralleled by increases in the set-aside acreage and extensive fodder production. However, significant differences at the regional level can be observed. They are caused mainly by differences in the shares of durum wheat and fodder maize.