NFDI4Energy Case-Study: Comparative Analysis and Visualisation of Long-Term Energy System Scenarios

Abstract

Analysis and comparison of energy system scenarios provide valuable insights into potential transformation pathways. These studies on long-term developments can serve as new inputs for scientific research and decision-making processes, providing policymakers and other stakeholders with the necessary guidance to achieve sustainable energy systems. Generally, such scenarios are derived from energy system models which often seek a cost-optimal system design under a variety of boundary conditions, ranging from technical constraints to limits of land availability or a cap on overall greenhouse gas emissions [1]. For Germany, several larger energy system scenario studies have been published, addressing the goal of carbon neutrality in 2045 as prescribed in the German climate protection act [2]. These studies show differences in their specific methodology, sector representation, parameter settings or, more generally, overall scenario narratives. This diversity represents a challenge regarding the comparability of these studies, and consequently the ability to identify consensus and controversies in their findings. Often only limited access to data for parameter settings and scenario results is provided. Almost always the data is presented in different detail and formats, thus imposing further barriers for comparison and usability for the scientific community [3].

As one of the three use cases applied in Task Area 6 of the NFDI4Energy research project, we aim to address this challenge by providing transparent and open comparative information and data on long-term energy system scenarios. Selected scenarios for the transition towards a climate-neutral Germany will be annotated with terms form the Open Energy Ontology (OEO) [4]. The comparison is building on an already existing database infrastructure from the Open Energy Platform (OEP) [5]. Existing concepts for qualitative and quantitative comparisons will be used and improved to cover a wide range of existing energy system studies.